The 2028 supply crisis: The shrimp industry is projected to face a 400,000-ton material shortage

Speaking at the Global Shrimp Forum held in Utrecht, Netherlands, in early September, Mr. Adolfo Fontes, Head of Business Intelligence at Dsm-Firmenich, warned of an impending supply-demand imbalance in marine raw materials. According to estimates, by 2028, the market will face a shortage of approximately 400,000 tons of fishmeal and fish oil relative to the requirements of aquafeed producers.

This supply pressure is expected to become clearly felt starting in 2026, as major supply sources—such as the Peruvian anchovy fishery—suffer the impacts of a strong El Niño event.

Prolonged Supply Pressure Due to Climate Events

Supply disruptions caused by weather events are not unprecedented. In 2023, a record El Niño forced the complete closure of the Peruvian anchovy fishing season, directly wiping out 50% of global fishmeal production compared to historical averages.

While projections for 2026 remain cautious due to uncertainties in the second half of the year, official forecasts indicate that marine raw material production could drop by around 20%. Notably, scientific models suggest El Niño could persist into early 2027, meaning supply chain pressures are likely to extend over multiple years.

Supply-Demand Imbalance in the Shrimp Production Chain

The core driver of this scarcity lies in the diverging growth rates between aquafeed production capacity and raw material inputs:

1. 2000–2025 Period: Total aquafeed production surged by 230%, whereas the output of natural marine raw materials grew by only 40%.

2. Declining Inclusion Rates: The proportion of marine protein combined with fish oil in feed formulations has been squeezed down from roughly 25% to around 10%.

Even though the inclusion rate of marine ingredients per kilogram of feed has dropped significantly, overall demand continues to rise as global shrimp farming expands steadily (projected to reach nearly 6 million tons by 2026). This growing volume makes a 400,000-ton deficit by 2028 virtually inevitable without major technological breakthroughs.

Price Spikes and Limits of Alternative Ingredients

This supply-demand mismatch, compounded by surging global demand over the past three years, has driven fishmeal and fish oil prices above typical levels—surpassing even the peaks of 2023. To ease the bottleneck, the aquaculture sector is actively seeking alternative protein sources; however, current production scales remain insufficient to fill the gap:

1. Single-Cell Protein: Reached 40,000 tons in 2025, with projected future output reaching 150,000–200,000 tons (about 35%, or 50,000 tons, allocated to aquaculture).

2. Insect Meal: Output stood at approximately 15,000 tons in 2024. Although forecasted to scale up to 250,000 tons, actual scalability remains uncertain as several companies have withdrawn from the sector.

3. Algal Oil: Output reached 20,000 tons in 2025 and is estimated to rise to 36,000 tons by 2030.

Even when combining the projected potential of all three alternative groups, the shortfall in marine raw materials will persist and widen over time.

 

Urgent Need for Feed Formulation Innovation

In light of volatile prices and prolonged cost risks, Mr. Adolfo Fontes emphasized that this is not a short-term issue, but rather a clear signal that the shrimp industry must accelerate its transformation. Innovating feed formulations to be more sustainable and efficient while reducing reliance on wild-caught marine protein will be vital for businesses to maintain long-term competitiveness.

AQUA MINA CO., LTD