Vietnam’s shrimp export outlook in the first quarter of 2026 continues to face heavy pressure from tariffs.
As of November 15, 2025, Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the United States reached USD 731 million, up 8% year-on-year, continuing to maintain the U.S. as the second-largest market for Vietnamese shrimp.
However, behind this modest growth lie increasing risks stemming from the U.S. trade remedy system.
Anti-dumping tariff bottleneck
The biggest short-term risk facing Vietnamese shrimp exporters is the outcome of the administrative review POR19 on frozen shrimp exports to the U.S. Preliminary results released by the U.S. Department of Commerce show an anti-dumping duty margin of up to 35.29%, far higher than expectations. The final ruling, expected in early 2026, will have a major impact on export activities throughout 2026.
Vietnam’s shrimp export outlook in the first quarter of 2026 continues to face heavy pressure from tariffs.
If the preliminary duty rate remains unchanged, it will not only create significant financial pressure but also affect the industry’s ability to maintain its market position in the coming year.
In fact, the sharp decline in shrimp exports in July followed by a rebound in August and September indicates that businesses rushed shipments ahead of the implementation of new measures.
Multiple layers of barriers tightening exports
In addition to anti-dumping duties, Vietnamese shrimp is also affected by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in 2025 on many imports from Vietnam.
Overlapping tariffs have pushed up compliance costs and actual selling prices, forcing businesses to adjust their export strategies and renegotiate terms with U.S. importers.
Data show that the export price of Vietnamese whiteleg shrimp to the U.S. in the third quarter ranged from USD 12.8 to 14.1 per kilogram, higher than previous quarters and the same period in 2024. Prices for black tiger shrimp also rose to between USD 17.9 and 20.4 per kilogram. This is a direct result of higher compliance costs and pressure for fast delivery, reflecting the tightening trade environment in the U.S.
Competitors struggle, opportunities depend on Vietnam’s compliance capacity
The international landscape is also highly volatile. India, the largest shrimp supplier to the U.S., is facing combined reciprocal, anti-dumping, and countervailing duties totaling up to 58.26%. Indonesia has experienced incidents where multiple containers of shrimp were rejected for technical reasons, disrupting supply chains and causing many processing plants to halt operations. Ecuador benefits from lower reciprocal tariffs, but its core product—whole shrimp—limits its ability to expand market share in the U.S.
These developments have created a certain supply gap. However, opportunities for Vietnam will only become clear if the POR19 duty results are reasonable and businesses meet the new compliance requirements effectively.
“Although exports in 2025 are still growing slightly, the outlook for the first quarter of 2026 is not very optimistic as businesses face heavy pressure from tariffs, compliance costs, and domestic production challenges. The risk of anti-dumping duties is the factor with the greatest impact on the market outlook,” VASEP noted.
In the context of increasingly stringent trade defense measures, the association believes that proactively standardizing data, ensuring transparency in documentation, and strengthening compliance management are essential solutions to reduce legal risks, maintain trust with importers, and create long-term competitive advantages.
In addition, businesses need to work proactively with U.S. importers to agree on data provision processes, support document audits, and develop risk-sharing mechanisms. Diversifying export markets will also help reduce dependence on the U.S. and spread tariff risk.
Source: Doanhnhan
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Ngày đăng : 24/12/2025
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